Tag Archives: completed

One Of The Above

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Here’s a question that’s worth asking if you’re assessing the prospects for the outcome of a CMA merger investigation:

In recent years which minority type of merger accounted for 100% – yes, 100% – of the marked rise in CMA Phase 1 references to an in-depth Phase 2 investigation?

Was it…

  1. Cases that the CMA selected for investigation (as opposed to cases notified by the parties)?
  2. Cases involving a so-called non-horizontal theory of harm?
  3. Cases that attracted complaints from customers and competitors?
  4. Cases launched by the CMA in the second quarter of the year?
  5. Cases that are anticipated (rather than completed) and that were qualified for investigation under the turnover test?
  6. Cases that involved so-called ‘platform’ businesses?
  7. Cases involving concerns about potential competition (as opposed to the removal of existing competition)?

Which answer would you choose? (Do drop me a line or put your answer in the comments box below)

If there’s sufficient interest I’ll look at the main candidates in future posts.

And, no, it’s not a trick question!

One of the above is the correct answer!….

…..Which in turn means revisiting the simple ‘rising CMA intervention’ narrative that often appears in commentaries.

How The CMA Merger Numbers Are Made Up

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There’s been a big overall decline in the percentage of CMA cases cleared unconditionally (at Phase 1 or Phase 2)* in recent years.

It’s been much commented on and interpreted.

But it’s not quite what it seems when you look behind the headline numbers.There are very different patterns when looked at by case type.

In fact, arithmetically at least, the aggregate change is accounted for by just one type of case.

Here’s the overall pattern for 2019 and 2020 cases, with the size of the different elements proportional to the number of outcomes in each category – where

  • green = unconditional clearance at Phase 1 or 2
  • yellow = remedies at Phase 1 or 2
  • red = prohibited or abandoned …….

Source: Adrian Payne analysis of published CMA decisions

It illustrates how important it can be to look behind the aggregate numbers when considering past or potential case outcomes and when interpreting ‘trends’ in the aggregrate numbers.

In one of my next Merger Insight briefings I’m going to be discussing the reasons behind these patterns and what they mean for companies planning mergers.

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(* Percentage of publically-investigated cases. Takes no account of cases the CMA chooses not to investigate publically, on which no meaningful data are published.)

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