Tag Archives: activision

UK Merger Insights: 2023 No. 5

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Here’s a selection of some of the best articles I have read recently that are relevant to UK merger control………….

1. Spend, Spend, Spend

How much did the CMA spend on the first part of its investigation into the Microsoft/Activision merger? In this article, Justin Cash looks at the numbers.

2. The Dye Is Cast

Ben Lask and Thomas Sebastian consider here the CAT decision regarding the Dye and Durham merger.

3. What Is ‘Dynamic Competition’?

Andrew Swan and colleagues discuss the matter here.

4. More Hype Than Reality?

In this paper Marc Ivaldi and colleagues examine whether so-called killer acquistions are as common or problematic as merger control authorities seem to think.

5. Rarity Value

Here Stephen Smith and colleagues present a rarity – a balanced assessment of the long-running Microsoft/Activision saga. Do let me know if you’ve spotted others.

6. Tougher Than The CMA

Nicole Kar and colleagues look here at the Bookings/Etraveli case, cleared by the CMA but prohibited by the EC.

Strange that noone has been moaning about the ‘divergence’ between the two agencies in this case, unlike other ‘divergent’ examples. I wonder why. Thoughts?

Merging Storytime And Fairytales

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Has the CMA become too tough on mergers?

There’s been an outbreak of commentary on this question in the aftermath of the CMA’s decision to prohibit the Microsoft/Activision merger.

Not only by those with direct skin in the game – but also by those using the controversy to lobby for a different UK approach to mergers, those drumming up business and those wishing to make wider political points.

But, as always, statistics can support competing narratives.

Which of the following stories is most insightful?…….

Story 1

From between 2015 and 2018 the CMA blocked 34% of mergers that were subject to an in-depth investigation.

From 2019 to 2022 – it blocked 58%.

Headline: How about – ‘The CMA is out of control and needs to be reined in’?

Story 2

Comparing the two periods the percentage of investigated mergers that the CMA blocked went up by fewer than four percentage points.

Headline: How about – ‘Move along. Little to see here’?

Story 3

The CMA considered around 4000 merger cases between 2015 and 2022. It prohibited 13 of these. Fewer than one third of one per cent.

Headline: How about – ‘The CMA is very light touch – It needs to be a lot tougher’?

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Each of these narratives uses correct information but presents it very differently.

When reading articles about UK merger trends – especially when written on the back of an individual case outcome – here are three key questions well worth asking:

  1. What’s in the picture? And – often more to the point – what’s not?
  2. Who’s saying it? And what’s their interest?
  3. To what extent does the conclusion put forward actually follow from the statistics presented?

UK Merger Insights: 2023 No.4

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Here’s a selection of some of the best articles I have read recently that are relevant to UK merger control………….

Unsurprisingly – a number of these are about the CMA’s much-discussed decision regarding the Microsoft/Activision deal………..

To date, it’s been rare to come across commentary about this deal that a) accurately describes the CMA process, b) gives a balanced portrayal of the CMA’s decision and c) transparently describes the authors’ involvement with, or interest in, the case. If you know of any – please feel free to comment below.

1. Changes to UK Merger Control

Bill Batchelor and colleagues summarise here the planned forthcoming changes to CMA jurisdictional thresholds and investigation procedures.

2. Setting Out The Stall

Alex Hern presents the logic behind the CMA’s prohibition of the Microsoft/Activision deal. Link here

3. War Of The Words

In this piece, Reece Goodall looks at the war of words that broke out following the CMA’s announcement prohibiting the Microsoft/Activision deal

4. Vive La Difference

Here Jacob Parry examines why the CMA and the EC came to different decisions regarding the Microsoft/Activision merger.

5. A Very Costly CMA Merger Prohibition

Paul Sawers looks at the Meta/Giphy case and how costly a CMA merger prohibition can be. Link here.

An Unusual Call Of Duty?

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Last week the CMA announced that it has provisionally found so-called ‘vertical’ competition problems with the Microsoft/Activision deal, centring on the popular game ‘Call of Duty’.

A vertical problem is one that results from of the coming together – or greater coming together – of different levels in a supply chain, rather than a combination at the same level.

In the past few days there has been a lot of commentary on last week’s announcement, some of it suggesting that this case is somehow unique or unusual.

So – How unusual is this outcome?

As always, it depends how you measure it. But here are a couple of thoughts………

1……………..

This case is one of 14 where the Phase 1 investigation identified vertical competition problems sufficient to justify reference to an in-depth Phase 2 investigation.

To put this is context, there have been around 90 completed CMA Phase 2 investigations to date.

Five of the previous thirteen survived the CMA process.

This is a very similar survival rate to other Phase 2 cases

2………….

In my assessment, the Microsoft/Activision CMA Phase 2 investigation is one of eight to focus primarily or exclusively on vertical matters.

If the CMA decided to prohibit the current transaction it would mean that three of the eight did not survive the CMA process.

If, instead, the CMA accepted a remedy to the competition problems identified, this would the first among these eight cases.

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There may well be other ways of looking at the question of how distinctive this case is.

Do comment below or drop me a line if you have other perspectives.

This post builds on data from a briefing on this case held in the first week of the year which also looked at the detail of the Phase 2 process and the significance of the extension to the Phase 2 timetable.