The CMA opened its Phase 1 investigation into the Vodaphone/Hutchinson merger today.

The parties will be hoping to defy the track record of CMA merger cases opened in October:

• Phase 1 clearance rate only just above 50%
• Phase 1 remedy rate = 50% above average
• Phase 1 reference rate = 50% above average
• Phase 2 clearance rate = 50% of average.

Ranking within months of the year – respectively:

• 2nd worst
• Worst (unless one sees remedy as the best possible outcome!)
• 2nd worst
• 3rd worst

What’s wrong with October?

I have my theory. What’s yours?